Skip the strategic foresight process and go straight to writing a strategic plan characteristics of the person doing a strategic foresight 1. Presented in a highly scannable yet personable style, each guideline includes an explanation and rationale, key steps, a case example, and resources for further. Strategic foresight the contemplation of alternative plausible future contexts for better strategic decisionmaking in the present harnesses these ways of thinking. Strategic foresight in business management aalto ee. A diverse, multistakeholder group, it brings together eminent and forwardlooking thought leaders and senior practitioners from leading public, private and civil society organizations. Using strategic foresight institute of chartered foresters. The strategic foresight analysis sfa 20 report was the product of initial efforts to establish institutional foresight within act to provide nato, national leaders and defence planners with a common perspective of the challenges facing the alliance in the decades to come. In the crisis response and disaster resilience 2030 report, sfi established a framework for foresight. Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight. In this sense, strategic foresight is fundamentally different from the notion of five or 10 year plans.
Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight. It enable us to see and shape a deeply desirable future by making and living by wise strategic commitments in the present commitments read more. It was vision that inspired the invention of the automobile. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain. A strategic plan is a management tool that serves the purpose of helping an organization do a better job, and it improves organizations because a. Yorkovich the tool whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. The book is written in understandable, accessible language.
Strategy is a high level plan to achieve one or more. At its best, the process allows policymakers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. By contrast, strategic foresight seeks to help decision makers think through uncertainty. Foresight report summary british nutrition foundation. Guidelines for strategic foresight edited by andy hines and peter bishop is the essential handbook for every aspiring analyst and, students of strategic foresight. Global agenda council on the future of government future. Jan 20, 2017 strategic foresight is not futuristic forecasting, nor is it the sole purview of popular science magazine, the world future society, or the jetson family. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic options available to an organisation.
Foresight canada courageous leadership for transforming change. Understand the era we are in certain or uncertain, slow changes or fast ones 2. The program is based on scientific approaches to foresight and scenario work. Strategic foresight research aims to enable resilience over time and to meet the needs of government and society, by identifying. Strategic foresight is a planningoriented discipline related to futures studies, the study of the future. Foresight canada courageous leadership for transforming. Nov 21, 2017 strategic foresight is not a magic formula that lifts some of the burden from policymakers and bureaucrats when juggling a large number of pressing policy issues simultaneously. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at. A brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides for. The contents of this document do not necessarily represent the official policies of the department of homeland security or the federal emergency management agency. Future outcomes can be influenced by our choices in the present 1 strategic foresight may be used as part of the corporate foresight in large companies 2. The value of strategic foresight presidential transition. English is the dominant language, the term foresight, introduced in the 1990s, was adopted. Skills technology foresight guidedmitry sudakov, pavel luksha, olga strietskailina, con gregg, christine hofmann, liana khachatryan.
Elements of a strategic plan a plan spells out where an organization is going over the next year or more and how it is going to get there. Bill barton, former center head for american express consumer lending operations, helped me understand this distinction in this way. A brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides. Strategic foresight is not futuristic forecasting, nor is it the sole purview of popular science magazine, the world future society, or the jetson family. Strategic foresight analysis 20 report 3 introduction strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways. Second in a twopart series elements of a strategic plan. The content of the document is largely based on information submitted by individual working group chairs. Simply put, a strategic plan is the formal ized road map that describes how your organization executes the chosen strategy. This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. The scenarios provide a tool with which to discuss alternative views of the future. Exploring futures the houston way andy hines, peter c. The strategic foresight in business management program is a comprehensive introduction to the approaches and tools of strategic foresight. Strategic foresight is a set of skills and tools used to explore potential futures, so that you can plan for and take advantage of them.
Know the difference between a fact and an assumption 3. Shea denning, chair, whitney afonso, latoya powell, dale roenigk, aimee wall, donna warner develop strategic initiatives that respond to the most important trends identified as highcertainty and highimpact during the foresight lab. Aug 25, 2008 an overview of strategic foresight, and several futures tools that can be used to build a strategic foresight capacity. The value of strategic foresight presidential transition 2016. It enable us to see and shape a deeply desirable future by making and living by wise strategic commitments in the. It enable us to see and shape a deeply desirable future by making and living by wise strategic commitments in the present commitments that are sound and contextsensitive enough to survive context change and actually contribute to the cocreation of a future we desire. The foresight project generated four possible scenarios, based on two critical uncertainties. It is about having the imagination to be prepared for what may come, regardless of which scenario occurs its a mindset, not a process. Global strategic foresight community reports world. Under the terms of this licence you are permitted to copy, distribute, display and perform the work, and make derivative works. Global agenda council on the future of government future of.
Jun 16, 2014 this document builds on the foundation of last years capstone strategic foresight initiative sfi report. Aug 10, 2014 a brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides for sseo 1. In conclusion, the framework provides for scholars and practitioners a logical structure to elements of strategic technology management. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions. Even at royal dutch shell, famed for its pioneering work in scenariobased planning, advocates have struggled at times to communicate its value to corporate leadership. The future is not predictable the future is not predetermined. It enable us to see and shape a deeply desirable future by making and living by wise strategic commitments in the present commitments that are sound and contextsensitive enough to survive context change and actually contribute to the cocreation of a future we desire given this understanding, we note. Fema urban search and rescue teams, along with dhs partners, conduct searches in neighborhoods. The book first explores how we think about the future, looking at ambiguity and uncertainty.
By jonathan tucker in discussing the value of strategic foresight, it is important to distinguish it from forecasting. Thinking about the future, by andy hines and peter bishop, distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. Strategic foresight is the practice of creating a functional view of the future, or future events and possibilities, in such a way as to take full advantage of opportunities, as well as to prepare for any possible adversity. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. An overview of strategic foresight, and several futures tools that can be used to build a strategic foresight capacity. In a business context, a more actionoriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight.
Strategic foresight group sfg is a think tank based in india that works on global issues. Planning considers a multitude of factors in the present environment, measures them and then extrapolates the data into the future. This document builds on the foundation of last years capstone strategic foresight initiative sfi report. Strategic foresight is the ability to create and maintain a highquality, coherent, and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in organizationally useful ways.
A quick and clean guide to creating foresight by richard a k lum, strategic foresight. The role of scenarios in strategic foresight sciencedirect. Employability skills through participation in strategic foresight workshops this resource is made available under a creative commons attribution 2. Bishop graduate program in futures studies, university of houston, 4800 calhoun road, 110 cameron building, houston, tx 772046020, usa 1. Sfg has worked with governments and national institutions of 60 countries from around the world. By broadening the understanding of what could occur, the less wellknown risks and challenges ahead can be identified and prepared for.
Strategic foresight requires a longer and broader view of the environment and, as we at the institute for alternative futures iaf would argue, a conscious attention to the organizations vision and visionary scenarios in the environment. For one, resultsbased management rbm demands an enhanced cohe1. It employs scenarios to consider how trends and developments in a number of areas may come. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of. Foresight workshop how to guide foresight workshop how. The requirement for institutional foresight is affirmed by recent.
As an extension of its own strategic foresight practice, the world economic forum has established a new community initiative, the global strategic foresight community gsfc. Strategic foresight is a concept i deem synonymous with corporate foresight. Introduction framework foresightis a methodforcarryingoutforesight projectsdeveloped attheuniversity ofhouston. Implementation of strategic foresight recommendations. Risks and preparing for them to futureproof policies. It is about mirroring the possible and potential futures against the understanding of organizationspecific capabilities, and those of ones competitors. Forecasting seeks to predict discrete events in the future. Strategic foresight is a fairly recent attempt to differentiate futurology from futures studies. To effectively spot new trends, strategic foresight teams need to have a much wider range of information sources than. Jan 20, 2017 the value of strategic foresight is less obvious because its benefits, such as enhanced capacity to perceive change, are indirect and less readily measured. Strategic foresight is not a magic formula that lifts some of the burden from policymakers and bureaucrats when juggling a large number of pressing policy issues simultaneously. Presentation at aair forum, sydney, nov slideshare uses cookies to improve functionality and performance, and to provide you with relevant advertising. While subtle, there is a distinction between vision and foresight. Strategic foresight in business management tools for creating strategic and competitive advantage.
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